Scouting Report
Josh Norris holds a +7.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Norris on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Norris 49.7% vs Novak 43.4% (+7.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Norris 58.9%
Defensive zone
Norris 85.7%
Neutral zone
Norris 80.1%
Result
Josh Norris favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Norris
Novak
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Norris
Novak
Last 6: Norris 4-2 Novak
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Norris
Novak
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Norris
1
0
Norris
Novak
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Norris
2
1
Norris
Novak
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Norris
Novak
Edge
Even Strength
50.0% (356)
41.4% (379)
+8.6%
Power Play
48.7% (76)
46.9% (32)
+1.8%
On even strength, Norris has a +8.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Novak shoots left. Norris is 52.7% vs left-shot opponents (294).
Norris shoots left. Novak is 41.7% vs left-shot opponents (271).
Home / Away
Norris
Novak
Home
47.2% (193)
42.6% (195)
Away
51.6% (246)
41.2% (216)
By Period
Norris
Novak
P1
53.8%
42.4%
P2
48.2%
39.2%
P3
47.9%
44.7%
OT
0.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
45.6%
40.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Norris
52.0%▲
50.5%
49.7%
Novak
40.0%▼
42.0%
41.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2026 | 3 | 18:45 | Offensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:46 | Offensive | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 09:38 | Defensive | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:11 | Neutral | Tommy Novak |
| Mar 5, 2026 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Josh Norris |