Scouting Report
Steven Stamkos holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowling on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dowling 48.7% vs Stamkos 49.9% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stamkos 78.1%
Defensive zone
Dowling 63.2%
Neutral zone
Stamkos 56.2%
Result
Steven Stamkos favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Dowling
Stamkos
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
1
(3 meetings)
2
1
Dowling
Stamkos
Zone Breakdown
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowling
2
1
Dowling
Stamkos
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dowling
Stamkos
Edge
Even Strength
48.7% (318)
49.3% (670)
-0.6%
Power Play
20.0% (5)
53.7% (121)
-33.7%
Penalty Kill
50.0% (4)
33.3% (3)
+16.7%
On power play, Stamkos has a +33.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stamkos shoots right. Dowling is 47.1% vs right-shot opponents (104).
Dowling shoots left. Stamkos is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (610).
Home / Away
Dowling
Stamkos
Home
49.0% (145)
54.0% (400)
Away
47.8% (182)
45.7% (394)
By Period
Dowling
Stamkos
P1
48.1%
48.6%
P2
49.1%
54.5%
P3
47.8%
45.4%
Final 5 min
51.5%
46.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dowling
54.0%▲
49.5%
48.3%
Stamkos
54.0%▬
55.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 23, 2025 | 3 | 17:58 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 12:06 | Neutral | Justin Dowling |
| Nov 25, 2024 | 1 | 12:02 | Neutral | Steven Stamkos |