Scouting Report
Sam Carrick holds a +10.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Kolesar on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 6 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Kolesar 43.4% vs Carrick 52.1% (-10.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Kolesar 68.6%
Defensive zone
Carrick 87.5%
Neutral zone
Carrick 69.2%
Result
Sam Carrick favored at 56.6%
43.4%
56.6%
Kolesar
Carrick
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Kolesar
Carrick
Last 9: Kolesar 5-4 Carrick
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Carrick
1
2
Kolesar
Carrick
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Kolesar
4
2
Kolesar
Carrick
6 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Kolesar
Carrick
Edge
Even Strength
41.9% (382)
52.1% (2,513)
-10.2%
Power Play
50.0% (6)
61.3% (75)
-11.3%
Penalty Kill
35.3% (17)
50.7% (430)
-15.4%
On penalty kill, Carrick has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carrick shoots right. Kolesar is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (106).
Kolesar shoots right. Carrick is 51.4% vs right-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Kolesar
Carrick
Home
38.2% (191)
51.2% (1,441)
Away
44.9% (214)
53.0% (1,577)
By Period
Kolesar
Carrick
P1
42.1%
51.8%
P2
43.2%
52.2%
P3
39.3%
52.4%
Final 5 min
42.4%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Kolesar
40.0%▲
38.0%
41.7%
Carrick
56.0%▬
56.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 11, 2025 | 2 | 15:01 | Offensive | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 04:01 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Mar 4, 2022 | 2 | 03:49 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 09:39 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:37 | Neutral | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:31 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 06:26 | Neutral | Keegan Kolesar |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 2 | 03:20 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |
| Dec 1, 2021 | 1 | 01:59 | Offensive | Sam Carrick |