Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Stenlund 54.0% (-6.4%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 12-5 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 90.9%
Defensive zone
Hayes 75.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 76.9%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 82.2%
82.2%
17.8%
Hayes
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
12
(17 meetings)
5
12
Hayes
Stenlund
Last 10: Hayes 1-9 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
3
Hayes
Stenlund
7 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
5
Hayes
Stenlund
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
4
Hayes
Stenlund
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
55.3% (2,703)
-7.8%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
52.6% (116)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
50.6% (919)
-5.3%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +7.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stenlund
Home
48.1% (3,982)
54.3% (1,848)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
53.9% (1,890)
By Period
Hayes
Stenlund
P1
47.5%
56.4%
P2
47.6%
53.3%
P3
47.9%
52.8%
OT
54.1%
52.9%
Final 5 min
49.3%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 14, 2025 | 3 | 05:24 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:05 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 04:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:13 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:31 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 21, 2023 | 2 | 05:10 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 2 | 17:00 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 28, 2023 | 1 | 13:11 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 09:05 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 20, 2020 | 1 | 00:41 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 05:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 3 | 03:36 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 2 | 10:58 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 18, 2020 | 1 | 05:22 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |