Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +1.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Hayes wins 54.4% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 50.2% vs Eller 51.7% (-1.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 55.1%
Defensive zone
Eller 81.2%
Neutral zone
Eller 65.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 74.0%
26.0%
74.0%
Hayes
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
1
(8 meetings)
7
1
Hayes
Eller
Last 8: Hayes 7-1 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Eller
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
5
0
Hayes
Eller
5 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
51.3% (672)
52.8% (769)
-1.5%
Power Play
50.0% (78)
54.7% (75)
-4.7%
Penalty Kill
40.8% (76)
46.8% (188)
-6.0%
On penalty kill, Eller has a +6.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Hayes is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (526).
Hayes shoots left. Eller is 52.6% vs left-shot opponents (703).
Home / Away
Hayes
Eller
Home
52.0% (404)
51.3% (513)
Away
48.6% (422)
52.5% (520)
By Period
Hayes
Eller
P1
50.7%
50.3%
P2
50.2%
52.8%
P3
49.8%
51.4%
OT
50.0%
87.5%
Final 5 min
52.9%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
50.2%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
51.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2020 | 3 | 11:47 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 4, 2020 | 2 | 02:28 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 3 | 03:31 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 14:41 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 8, 2020 | 2 | 14:34 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 3 | 07:45 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 02:07 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Nov 13, 2019 | 1 | 01:17 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |