Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +4.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Eller 52.0% (+4.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 85.4%
Defensive zone
Eller 53.2%
Neutral zone
Hayes 73.8%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 64.4%
64.4%
35.6%
Hayes
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
8
-
1
(9 meetings)
8
1
Hayes
Eller
Last 9: Hayes 8-1 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
1
Hayes
Eller
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
3
0
Hayes
Eller
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
52.8% (742)
+3.8%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
67.6% (34)
-10.6%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
46.2% (156)
+19.5%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +19.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Hayes is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (587).
Hayes shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Hayes
Eller
Home
58.0% (405)
54.5% (448)
Away
56.1% (433)
50.2% (484)
By Period
Hayes
Eller
P1
54.7%
52.8%
P2
55.7%
50.9%
P3
60.2%
53.4%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 05:39 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 09:33 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |