Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +2.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Eller on offensive-zone draws (55% H2H, 22 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Eller 50.5% (-2.8%)
H2H factor
Eller leads 40-40 in 80 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 62.0%
Defensive zone
Eller 55.9%
Neutral zone
Hayes 50.1%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 51.1%
51.1%
48.9%
Hayes
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
40
-
40
(80 meetings)
40
40
Hayes
Eller
Last 10: Hayes 8-2 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
10
12
Hayes
Eller
22 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
16
14
Hayes
Eller
30 total
Neutral Zone
Even
14
14
Hayes
Eller
28 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
51.1% (10,296)
-3.6%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
52.8% (621)
-1.1%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
46.7% (1,751)
-1.4%
On even strength, Eller has a +3.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Hayes is 48.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,132).
Hayes shoots left. Eller is 50.9% vs left-shot opponents (8,123).
Home / Away
Hayes
Eller
Home
48.1% (3,982)
51.4% (6,118)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
49.7% (6,578)
By Period
Hayes
Eller
P1
47.5%
51.2%
P2
47.6%
50.1%
P3
47.9%
50.2%
OT
54.1%
56.7%
Final 5 min
49.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
50.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 15:27 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:30 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:23 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:57 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 12:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 2 | 02:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 3 | 03:52 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 30, 2023 | 2 | 06:50 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 3 | 16:00 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:49 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 17:42 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 05:39 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 2 | 00:34 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 09:33 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 21, 2023 | 1 | 02:07 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 14, 2023 | 1 | 09:41 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 2 | 02:11 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 19:37 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 17:02 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 10:29 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |