Scouting Report
Mika Zibanejad holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Zibanejad on neutral-zone draws (58% H2H, 26 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Zibanejad 49.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Zibanejad leads 37-35 in 72 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 50.1%
Defensive zone
Hayes 50.6%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 51.1%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 50.2%
49.8%
50.2%
Hayes
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
35
-
37
(72 meetings)
35
37
Hayes
Zibanejad
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
15
15
Hayes
Zibanejad
30 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
9
7
Hayes
Zibanejad
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
11
15
Hayes
Zibanejad
26 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
50.9% (11,719)
-3.4%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
52.2% (1,849)
-0.5%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
41.5% (1,790)
+3.8%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +3.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Zibanejad is 50.1% vs left-shot opponents (10,678).
Home / Away
Hayes
Zibanejad
Home
48.1% (3,982)
51.6% (7,566)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
48.3% (7,793)
By Period
Hayes
Zibanejad
P1
47.5%
50.4%
P2
47.6%
49.7%
P3
47.9%
49.8%
OT
54.1%
48.7%
Final 5 min
49.3%
48.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:03 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 3 | 16:37 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 09:47 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 08:16 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 2 | 08:05 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 1, 2023 | 1 | 14:40 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | OT | 00:09 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 3 | 14:19 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 13:17 | Defensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 01:00 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Mika Zibanejad |
| Apr 13, 2022 | 2 | 17:40 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |