Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (52.1% vs 52.0%). Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Zibanejad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Zibanejad 51.8% (+0.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 62.8%
Defensive zone
Zibanejad 64.0%
Neutral zone
Zibanejad 54.3%
Result
Mika Zibanejad favored at 52.5%
47.5%
52.5%
Hayes
Zibanejad
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
3
(7 meetings)
4
3
Hayes
Zibanejad
Last 7: Hayes 4-3 Zibanejad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zibanejad
0
3
Hayes
Zibanejad
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
0
Hayes
Zibanejad
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Zibanejad
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
52.9% (870)
-1.3%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
53.5% (43)
-0.3%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
46.2% (143)
+13.8%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +13.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zibanejad shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. Zibanejad is 52.1% vs left-shot opponents (748).
Home / Away
Hayes
Zibanejad
Home
50.5% (200)
55.1% (501)
Away
53.4% (253)
49.2% (555)
By Period
Hayes
Zibanejad
P1
58.8%
57.5%
P2
49.3%
50.7%
P3
48.0%
47.9%
OT
66.7%
66.7%
Final 5 min
56.9%
50.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Zibanejad
50.0%▼
51.5%
52.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 13:45 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 3 | 01:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 2 | 07:03 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 13:28 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 7, 2025 | 1 | 00:13 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:13 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |
| Dec 6, 2024 | 2 | 09:10 | Offensive | Mika Zibanejad |