Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +12.9% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 32.6% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 44.1% vs MacKinnon 50.7% (-12.9%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 67.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 52.3%
Neutral zone
Hayes 54.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 55.1%
44.9%
55.1%
Hayes
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
33.3% (81)
49.1% (825)
-15.8%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
65.4% (130)
-1.1%
On even strength, MacKinnon has a +15.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 32.6% vs right-shot opponents (43).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 52.9% vs left-shot opponents (716).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
30.6% (49)
52.6% (489)
Away
45.7% (46)
49.1% (495)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
24.2%
50.3%
P2
43.8%
52.6%
P3
46.7%
49.2%
Final 5 min
31.8%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
37.9%
MacKinnon
54.0%▬
54.5%
50.8%