Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 31.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 42.7% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (-15.7%)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 71.3%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 51.0%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 59.3%
40.7%
59.3%
Hayes
MacKinnon
No head-to-head faceoffs recorded
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
31.9% (91)
50.0% (992)
-18.1%
Power Play
64.3% (14)
64.9% (148)
-0.6%
Penalty Kill
0.0% (1)
34.4% (32)
-34.4%
On penalty kill, MacKinnon has a +34.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 31.3% vs right-shot opponents (48).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 53.8% vs left-shot opponents (839).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
30.6% (49)
53.3% (591)
Away
40.4% (57)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
22.9%
49.9%
P2
40.0%
53.2%
P3
44.4%
50.8%
Final 5 min
30.4%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
35.8%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%