Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 52.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 62.7%
Neutral zone
Hayes 59.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 62.7%
62.7%
37.3%
Hayes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hayes
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
2
0
Hayes
MacKinnon
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
49.2% (1,266)
+2.4%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
54.9% (193)
-1.7%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
49.1% (55)
+10.9%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +10.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,100).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
50.5% (200)
50.9% (740)
Away
53.4% (253)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
58.8%
50.9%
P2
49.3%
51.8%
P3
48.0%
47.1%
OT
66.7%
58.8%
Final 5 min
56.9%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |