Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +10.8% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+10.8%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 57.3%
Defensive zone
Hayes 51.3%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 53.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 53.0%
47.0%
53.0%
Hayes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Hayes
MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Hayes
MacKinnon
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
45.5% (1,190)
+11.1%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
56.4% (94)
+0.6%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
40.0% (30)
+25.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +25.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 45.7% vs left-shot opponents (905).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
58.0% (405)
47.8% (670)
Away
56.1% (433)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
54.7%
45.3%
P2
55.7%
48.5%
P3
60.2%
45.0%
OT
50.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.9%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |