Kevin Hayes vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 46.8%). Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (65% H2H, 17 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+0.9%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 23-19 in 42 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 56.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 50.7%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 50.3%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 51.7%
48.3%
51.7%
Hayes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
23
-
19
(42 meetings)
23
19
Hayes
MacKinnon
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
6
6
Hayes
MacKinnon
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
11
6
Hayes
MacKinnon
17 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
6
7
Hayes
MacKinnon
13 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
46.1% (11,218)
+1.4%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
53.3% (1,412)
-1.6%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
42.8% (502)
+2.5%
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 47.1% vs left-shot opponents (9,490).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
48.1% (3,982)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
47.5%
47.4%
P2
47.6%
46.6%
P3
47.9%
46.1%
OT
54.1%
48.4%
Final 5 min
49.3%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 18:04 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 4, 2025 | 3 | 14:23 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 29, 2023 | 3 | 01:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 11, 2023 | 3 | 15:15 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Mar 25, 2022 | 1 | 19:06 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 3 | 11:14 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 00:19 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 00:15 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 1, 2020 | 1 | 10:38 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 3 | 19:47 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 2 | 11:13 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 2 | 10:42 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 2 | 09:01 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 11, 2019 | 1 | 02:59 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Apr 4, 2019 | 3 | 07:23 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 16, 2018 | OT | 02:23 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 16, 2018 | 3 | 04:31 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 5, 2017 | 3 | 08:59 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 5, 2017 | 2 | 10:05 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |