Scouting Report
Nathan MacKinnon holds a +10.7% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on neutral-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayes wins 33.2% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 38.0% vs MacKinnon 47.5% (-10.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 70.8%
Defensive zone
Hayes 71.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 74.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 73.9%
73.9%
26.1%
Hayes
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Hayes
MacKinnon
Last 5: Hayes 1-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Hayes
MacKinnon
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
1
3
Hayes
MacKinnon
4 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
37.1% (642)
45.2% (365)
-8.1%
Power Play
32.1% (28)
57.1% (63)
-25.0%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +25.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Hayes is 33.2% vs right-shot opponents (262).
Hayes shoots left. MacKinnon is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (299).
Home / Away
Hayes
MacKinnon
Home
36.7% (354)
48.0% (225)
Away
35.8% (327)
45.8% (203)
By Period
Hayes
MacKinnon
P1
33.6%
41.1%
P2
38.3%
49.6%
P3
37.0%
48.9%
Final 5 min
39.0%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
36.3%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
47.0%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 12, 2015 | 1 | 00:39 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 2 | 08:28 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 16:41 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 07:02 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Nov 13, 2014 | 1 | 04:11 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |