Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +8.9% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Dowd 48.3% (+8.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 66.1%
Defensive zone
Dowd 93.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 62.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 51.8%
51.8%
48.2%
Hayes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
2
(2 meetings)
0
2
Hayes
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Hayes
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Hayes
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
49.2% (778)
+7.4%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
58.3% (12)
-1.3%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
44.0% (234)
+21.7%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +21.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Dowd is 48.0% vs left-shot opponents (698).
Home / Away
Hayes
Dowd
Home
58.0% (405)
46.3% (492)
Away
56.1% (433)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Hayes
Dowd
P1
54.7%
49.1%
P2
55.7%
48.2%
P3
60.2%
46.9%
OT
50.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
58.9%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 01:50 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |