Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Dowd 49.9% (+2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 84.6%
Defensive zone
Dowd 90.1%
Neutral zone
Dowd 55.6%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 59.7%
59.7%
40.3%
Hayes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Hayes
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Dowd
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Hayes
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
52.2% (835)
-0.6%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
60.0% (10)
-6.8%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
44.0% (350)
+16.0%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +16.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. Dowd is 50.7% vs left-shot opponents (833).
Home / Away
Hayes
Dowd
Home
50.5% (200)
51.5% (619)
Away
53.4% (253)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Hayes
Dowd
P1
58.8%
51.7%
P2
49.3%
51.6%
P3
48.0%
47.0%
OT
66.7%
22.2%
Final 5 min
56.9%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:14 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |