Scouting Report
Nic Dowd holds a +3.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Dowd on defensive-zone draws (93% H2H, 27 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Dowd 50.7% (-3.0%)
H2H factor
Dowd leads 37-25 in 62 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 86.2%
Defensive zone
Hayes 74.8%
Neutral zone
Hayes 68.4%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 78.4%
78.4%
21.6%
Hayes
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
25
-
37
(62 meetings)
25
37
Hayes
Dowd
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
19
6
Hayes
Dowd
25 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
2
25
Hayes
Dowd
27 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Dowd
4
6
Hayes
Dowd
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
52.4% (6,009)
-4.9%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
56.1% (164)
-4.4%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
44.1% (1,635)
+1.2%
On even strength, Dowd has a +4.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Dowd is 50.5% vs left-shot opponents (5,134).
Home / Away
Hayes
Dowd
Home
48.1% (3,982)
51.9% (3,897)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
49.5% (3,912)
By Period
Hayes
Dowd
P1
47.5%
51.7%
P2
47.6%
50.4%
P3
47.9%
50.3%
OT
54.1%
45.9%
Final 5 min
49.3%
50.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
50.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 22, 2025 | 3 | 13:58 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 22, 2025 | 2 | 04:28 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2025 | 1 | 18:14 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 20, 2024 | 1 | 06:56 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 18, 2024 | 2 | 01:50 | Offensive | Nic Dowd |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 13:00 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 11, 2023 | 1 | 07:44 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 15:40 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 3 | 11:01 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 14:16 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 7, 2022 | 1 | 13:21 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 14:59 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 03:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 3 | 01:40 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 16:14 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 23, 2022 | 1 | 11:05 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 15:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 12:14 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Nic Dowd |
| Apr 12, 2022 | 2 | 19:58 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |