Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +7.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on defensive-zone draws (57% H2H, 7 meetings). Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Bjugstad shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Bjugstad 49.3% (+7.8%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 9-8 in 17 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 65.9%
Defensive zone
Bjugstad 55.5%
Neutral zone
Hayes 60.7%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 56.5%
56.5%
43.5%
Hayes
Bjugstad
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
8
(17 meetings)
9
8
Hayes
Bjugstad
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Bjugstad
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
4
4
Hayes
Bjugstad
8 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
3
Hayes
Bjugstad
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Hayes
Bjugstad
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Bjugstad
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
50.7% (906)
+5.9%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
48.1% (108)
+8.9%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
44.4% (239)
+21.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +21.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Bjugstad shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Bjugstad is 49.2% vs left-shot opponents (906).
Home / Away
Hayes
Bjugstad
Home
58.0% (405)
49.8% (643)
Away
56.1% (433)
48.7% (610)
By Period
Hayes
Bjugstad
P1
54.7%
49.4%
P2
55.7%
50.5%
P3
60.2%
47.9%
OT
50.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Bjugstad
40.0%▼
48.0%
49.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 2, 2023 | 3 | 05:25 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 2 | 05:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 08:11 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Dec 2, 2023 | 1 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:59 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:48 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:22 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 18:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 16:25 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:36 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 08:13 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 3 | 17:12 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 10:39 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 9, 2023 | 2 | 03:03 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 3 | 19:31 | Offensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 2 | 15:26 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |
| Oct 19, 2023 | 1 | 15:32 | Defensive | Nick Bjugstad |