Scouting Report
Ryan Carpenter holds a +8.7% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs Carpenter 51.2% (-8.7%)
H2H factor
Not applied (1 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 75.4%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 62.0%
Neutral zone
Hayes 51.8%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 62.0%
38.0%
62.0%
Hayes
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
1
(1 meetings)
0
1
Hayes
Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Hayes
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
53.2% (299)
-10.5%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
33.3% (3)
+9.6%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
46.5% (86)
-1.3%
On even strength, Carpenter has a +10.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Hayes is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Hayes shoots left. Carpenter is 49.3% vs left-shot opponents (284).
Home / Away
Hayes
Carpenter
Home
43.5% (232)
54.6% (207)
Away
42.4% (375)
48.1% (181)
By Period
Hayes
Carpenter
P1
40.1%
52.3%
P2
44.8%
51.5%
P3
42.4%
50.8%
Final 5 min
44.3%
44.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
42.8%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:27 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |