Scouting Report
These two are closely matched in overall FO% (47.7% vs 48.4%). Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Carpenter 48.5% (-0.7%)
H2H factor
Hayes leads 7-5 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Hayes 65.7%
Defensive zone
Carpenter 64.8%
Neutral zone
Carpenter 57.5%
Result
Ryan Carpenter favored at 54.0%
46.0%
54.0%
Hayes
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
5
(12 meetings)
7
5
Hayes
Carpenter
Last 10: Hayes 6-4 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
0
Hayes
Carpenter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
2
5
Hayes
Carpenter
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
49.6% (2,027)
-2.1%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
41.5% (41)
+10.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
43.9% (467)
+1.4%
On power play, Hayes has a +10.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Carpenter is 46.8% vs left-shot opponents (1,840).
Home / Away
Hayes
Carpenter
Home
48.1% (3,982)
51.2% (1,290)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
45.5% (1,245)
By Period
Hayes
Carpenter
P1
47.5%
49.6%
P2
47.6%
47.7%
P3
47.9%
48.0%
OT
54.1%
55.6%
Final 5 min
49.3%
49.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
48.4%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 1, 2022 | 1 | 16:32 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 5, 2022 | 3 | 07:27 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 3 | 03:23 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 4, 2019 | 2 | 09:14 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Mar 21, 2019 | 2 | 03:37 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Dec 16, 2018 | 3 | 05:46 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Oct 23, 2017 | 1 | 01:56 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |