Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Hayes on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Hayes wins 55.0% vs right-shot opponents — Carpenter shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 56.3% vs Carpenter 48.2% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 87.9%
Defensive zone
Hayes 61.1%
Neutral zone
Hayes 71.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 82.5%
82.5%
17.5%
Hayes
Carpenter
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Hayes
Carpenter
Last 5: Hayes 4-1 Carpenter
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
4
0
Hayes
Carpenter
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Carpenter
0
1
Hayes
Carpenter
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Carpenter
Edge
Even Strength
56.6% (724)
48.8% (404)
+7.8%
Power Play
57.0% (79)
100.0% (1)
-43.0%
Penalty Kill
65.7% (35)
43.6% (101)
+22.1%
On power play, Carpenter has a +43.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Carpenter shoots right. Hayes is 55.0% vs right-shot opponents (251).
Hayes shoots left. Carpenter is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (366).
Home / Away
Hayes
Carpenter
Home
58.0% (405)
48.9% (274)
Away
56.1% (433)
46.6% (232)
By Period
Hayes
Carpenter
P1
54.7%
51.9%
P2
55.7%
49.4%
P3
60.2%
41.8%
OT
50.0%
100.0%
Final 5 min
58.9%
50.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
57.0%
Carpenter
48.0%▬
47.0%
47.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2024 | 3 | 19:18 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 30, 2024 | 1 | 12:12 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 3 | 00:10 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 2 | 09:50 | Defensive | Ryan Carpenter |
| Nov 16, 2023 | 1 | 09:37 | Offensive | Kevin Hayes |