Scouting Report
Sam Gagner holds a +3.9% FO% edge overall. Hayes wins 43.4% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 43.8% vs Gagner 47.5% (-3.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 50.4%
Defensive zone
Gagner 81.0%
Neutral zone
Gagner 65.7%
Result
Sam Gagner favored at 73.4%
26.6%
73.4%
Hayes
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
0
(2 meetings)
2
0
Hayes
Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Gagner
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Hayes
1
0
Hayes
Gagner
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
42.7% (478)
51.3% (158)
-8.6%
Power Play
42.9% (98)
66.7% (36)
-23.8%
Penalty Kill
45.2% (31)
33.6% (110)
+11.6%
On power play, Gagner has a +23.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Hayes is 43.4% vs right-shot opponents (219).
Hayes shoots left. Gagner is 44.6% vs left-shot opponents (240).
Home / Away
Hayes
Gagner
Home
43.5% (232)
53.2% (154)
Away
42.4% (375)
40.0% (150)
By Period
Hayes
Gagner
P1
40.1%
35.6%
P2
44.8%
52.7%
P3
42.4%
51.9%
OT
80.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
44.3%
34.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
32.0%▼
44.5%
42.8%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
46.7%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 05:17 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |