Scouting Report
Kevin Hayes holds a +1.8% FO% edge overall. Look for Gagner on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 6 meetings). Hayes wins 46.3% vs right-shot opponents — Gagner shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 47.7% vs Gagner 46.0% (+1.8%)
H2H factor
Gagner leads 10-9 in 19 meetings
Offensive zone
Gagner 65.6%
Defensive zone
Hayes 62.7%
Neutral zone
Gagner 51.5%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Hayes
Gagner
Head-to-Head Record
9
-
10
(19 meetings)
9
10
Hayes
Gagner
Last 10: Hayes 5-5 Gagner
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gagner
0
6
Hayes
Gagner
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Hayes
7
1
Hayes
Gagner
8 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Gagner
2
3
Hayes
Gagner
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Gagner
Edge
Even Strength
47.5% (6,708)
45.4% (4,699)
+2.1%
Power Play
51.7% (702)
51.5% (928)
+0.2%
Penalty Kill
45.3% (697)
35.0% (226)
+10.3%
On penalty kill, Hayes has a +10.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gagner shoots right. Hayes is 46.3% vs right-shot opponents (2,975).
Hayes shoots left. Gagner is 45.4% vs left-shot opponents (4,184).
Home / Away
Hayes
Gagner
Home
48.1% (3,982)
48.7% (3,025)
Away
47.3% (4,125)
43.0% (2,843)
By Period
Hayes
Gagner
P1
47.5%
44.6%
P2
47.6%
46.1%
P3
47.9%
47.3%
OT
54.1%
42.0%
Final 5 min
49.3%
45.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
47.7%
Gagner
48.0%▲
41.5%
45.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 22, 2022 | 3 | 02:31 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Mar 22, 2022 | 1 | 05:17 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 3 | 10:13 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 2 | 15:14 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 2 | 15:07 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 2 | 14:58 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 28, 2018 | 2 | 12:39 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 26, 2017 | 1 | 06:35 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 13, 2017 | 2 | 00:49 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 13, 2017 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Hayes |
| Feb 13, 2017 | 1 | 19:30 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 11:43 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 08:12 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Jan 7, 2017 | 1 | 04:27 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Nov 18, 2016 | 3 | 05:30 | Defensive | Kevin Hayes |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 3 | 04:09 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |
| Oct 24, 2015 | 1 | 01:45 | Defensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 26, 2015 | 1 | 01:17 | Offensive | Sam Gagner |
| Feb 14, 2015 | 1 | 02:20 | Neutral | Sam Gagner |