Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +1.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (94% H2H, 33 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Larkin 52.7% vs Stenlund 54.0% (-1.4%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 37-13 in 50 meetings
Offensive zone
Larkin 80.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 62.2%
Neutral zone
Larkin 56.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 51.1%
48.9%
51.1%
Larkin
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
13
-
37
(50 meetings)
13
37
Larkin
Stenlund
Last 10: Larkin 4-6 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Larkin
7
3
Larkin
Stenlund
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
31
Larkin
Stenlund
33 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Larkin
4
3
Larkin
Stenlund
7 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Larkin
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.7% (9,019)
55.3% (2,703)
-3.6%
Power Play
58.5% (2,125)
52.6% (116)
+5.9%
Penalty Kill
50.2% (1,122)
50.6% (919)
-0.4%
On power play, Larkin has a +5.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Larkin is 51.8% vs right-shot opponents (4,416).
Larkin shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Home / Away
Larkin
Stenlund
Home
54.0% (6,238)
54.3% (1,848)
Away
51.3% (6,028)
53.9% (1,890)
By Period
Larkin
Stenlund
P1
52.7%
56.4%
P2
53.1%
53.3%
P3
52.1%
52.8%
OT
58.4%
52.9%
Final 5 min
53.2%
53.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Larkin
54.0%▲
49.5%
52.7%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:30 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 14:21 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 08:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 19:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 15:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 2 | 14:51 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 18:09 | Offensive | Dylan Larkin |
| Feb 4, 2026 | 1 | 10:04 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 3 | 08:12 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 11:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 09:19 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 04:17 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 2 | 01:00 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 17, 2025 | 1 | 11:06 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 12:39 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 3 | 06:32 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 19:22 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 24, 2025 | 2 | 16:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |