Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +7.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on defensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Hayes wins 56.9% vs right-shot opponents — Stenlund shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Hayes 51.7% vs Stenlund 58.3% (-7.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (7 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Hayes 94.0%
Defensive zone
Hayes 74.4%
Neutral zone
Hayes 80.3%
Result
Kevin Hayes favored at 81.7%
81.7%
18.3%
Hayes
Stenlund
Head-to-Head Record
0
-
7
(7 meetings)
0
7
Hayes
Stenlund
Last 7: Hayes 0-7 Stenlund
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
Hayes
Stenlund
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
3
Hayes
Stenlund
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
0
2
Hayes
Stenlund
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Hayes
Stenlund
Edge
Even Strength
51.6% (386)
58.6% (797)
-7.0%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
62.5% (24)
-9.3%
Penalty Kill
60.0% (20)
60.5% (233)
-0.5%
On power play, Stenlund has a +9.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Stenlund shoots right. Hayes is 56.9% vs right-shot opponents (153).
Hayes shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Home / Away
Hayes
Stenlund
Home
50.5% (200)
58.6% (548)
Away
53.4% (253)
59.7% (506)
By Period
Hayes
Stenlund
P1
58.8%
60.2%
P2
49.3%
59.1%
P3
48.0%
58.3%
OT
66.7%
58.6%
Final 5 min
56.9%
58.8%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Hayes
30.0%▼
42.5%
52.1%
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 17:00 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 3 | 07:05 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 04:13 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 01:46 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 29, 2025 | 2 | 01:36 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 17:13 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 23, 2024 | 3 | 02:31 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |