Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +2.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.6% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.0% vs Frost 54.9% (-2.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 84.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 86.3%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 54.0%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 55.8%
44.2%
55.8%
Stenlund
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stenlund
Frost
Last 5: Stenlund 2-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
Stenlund
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
55.0% (500)
54.1% (521)
+0.9%
Power Play
50.0% (40)
59.6% (141)
-9.6%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (243)
100.0% (5)
-49.4%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +49.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stenlund is 56.6% vs left-shot opponents (511).
Stenlund shoots right. Frost is 56.0% vs right-shot opponents (209).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Frost
Home
55.5% (346)
57.2% (339)
Away
51.7% (437)
54.0% (328)
By Period
Stenlund
Frost
P1
54.4%
58.2%
P2
51.7%
55.6%
P3
54.8%
52.9%
OT
42.9%
60.0%
Final 5 min
56.0%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
48.0%▼
53.5%
53.4%
Frost
74.0%▲
55.0%
55.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |