Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +1.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 4 meetings). Stenlund wins 53.1% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Frost 49.5% (+1.9%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 82.8%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 79.6%
Neutral zone
Frost 53.6%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 67.5%
32.5%
67.5%
Stenlund
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
5
(6 meetings)
1
5
Stenlund
Frost
Last 6: Stenlund 1-5 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
4
Stenlund
Frost
4 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
1
Stenlund
Frost
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Frost
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
48.6% (704)
+5.8%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
55.7% (115)
-12.8%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
25.0% (4)
+19.1%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +19.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stenlund is 53.1% vs left-shot opponents (644).
Stenlund shoots right. Frost is 53.5% vs right-shot opponents (331).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Frost
Home
50.7% (402)
49.9% (399)
Away
52.0% (433)
49.1% (424)
By Period
Stenlund
Frost
P1
56.5%
51.2%
P2
52.4%
53.9%
P3
45.2%
42.7%
OT
100.0%
40.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
50.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
49.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 11:20 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 3 | 05:51 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 24, 2024 | 1 | 14:35 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 3 | 13:07 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 7, 2024 | 1 | 17:07 | Defensive | Morgan Frost |
| Feb 6, 2024 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |