Scouting Report
Morgan Frost holds a +1.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Frost on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Frost shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Frost 55.7% (-1.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Frost 80.7%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 87.9%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 55.8%
Result
Morgan Frost favored at 53.3%
46.7%
53.3%
Stenlund
Frost
Head-to-Head Record
2
-
3
(5 meetings)
2
3
Stenlund
Frost
Last 5: Stenlund 2-3 Frost
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Frost
0
3
Stenlund
Frost
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Frost
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Frost
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
54.9% (701)
+1.2%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
60.8% (166)
-7.6%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
100.0% (5)
-47.9%
On penalty kill, Frost has a +47.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Frost shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Stenlund shoots right. Frost is 54.9% vs right-shot opponents (286).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Frost
Home
57.0% (458)
56.0% (443)
Away
52.6% (511)
56.6% (429)
By Period
Stenlund
Frost
P1
55.1%
58.9%
P2
53.3%
55.3%
P3
56.4%
54.0%
OT
42.1%
70.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Frost
62.0%▲
59.0%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 6, 2025 | 1 | 04:40 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 15:45 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 10:47 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 3 | 06:28 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 15, 2025 | 1 | 07:21 | Offensive | Morgan Frost |