Kevin Stenlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2025-26 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.2% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 16 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs MacKinnon 51.3% (+3.2%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 22-15 in 37 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 87.1%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 72.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 56.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 61.2%
38.8%
61.2%
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
15
-
22
(37 meetings)
15
22
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
4
12
Stenlund
MacKinnon
16 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
6
5
Stenlund
MacKinnon
11 total
Neutral Zone
Even
5
5
Stenlund
MacKinnon
10 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
50.0% (992)
+6.1%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
64.9% (148)
-11.7%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
34.4% (32)
+17.7%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +17.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Stenlund shoots right. MacKinnon is 45.6% vs right-shot opponents (333).
Home / Away
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Home
57.0% (458)
53.3% (591)
Away
52.6% (511)
49.6% (581)
By Period
Stenlund
MacKinnon
P1
55.1%
49.9%
P2
53.3%
53.2%
P3
56.4%
50.8%
OT
42.1%
66.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
56.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
51.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:07 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |