Kevin Stenlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
All Seasons · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +7.3% FO% edge overall. Look for MacKinnon on offensive-zone draws (61% H2H, 23 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.0% vs MacKinnon 46.8% (+7.3%)
H2H factor
MacKinnon leads 31-22 in 53 meetings
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 88.5%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 59.6%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 73.4%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 75.8%
24.2%
75.8%
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
22
-
31
(53 meetings)
22
31
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
9
14
Stenlund
MacKinnon
23 total
Defensive Zone
Even
8
8
Stenlund
MacKinnon
16 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
5
9
Stenlund
MacKinnon
14 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,703)
46.1% (11,218)
+9.2%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
53.3% (1,412)
-0.7%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (919)
42.8% (502)
+7.8%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +9.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (931).
Stenlund shoots right. MacKinnon is 46.0% vs right-shot opponents (3,643).
Home / Away
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Home
54.3% (1,848)
49.7% (6,444)
Away
53.9% (1,890)
44.0% (6,689)
By Period
Stenlund
MacKinnon
P1
56.4%
47.4%
P2
53.3%
46.6%
P3
52.8%
46.1%
OT
52.9%
48.4%
Final 5 min
53.4%
49.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 23, 2025 | 3 | 19:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 2 | 12:39 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:14 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 1 | 14:04 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 19:52 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 18:03 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 14:55 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:53 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 18:47 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:31 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 09:17 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 07:12 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 21, 2025 | 2 | 04:07 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:27 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:07 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 19:00 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 18:33 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Oct 9, 2025 | 3 | 12:16 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |