Kevin Stenlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2023-24 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +5.2% FO% edge overall. Stenlund wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — MacKinnon shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs MacKinnon 46.5% (+5.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
MacKinnon 85.4%
Defensive zone
MacKinnon 55.2%
Neutral zone
MacKinnon 72.6%
Result
Nathan MacKinnon favored at 70.8%
29.2%
70.8%
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
4
(5 meetings)
1
4
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Last 5: Stenlund 1-4 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Even
1
1
Stenlund
MacKinnon
2 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
2
Stenlund
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Stenlund
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
45.5% (1,190)
+8.9%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
56.4% (94)
-13.5%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
40.0% (30)
+4.1%
On power play, MacKinnon has a +13.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stenlund is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Stenlund shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.2% vs right-shot opponents (409).
Home / Away
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Home
50.7% (402)
47.8% (670)
Away
52.0% (433)
44.6% (644)
By Period
Stenlund
MacKinnon
P1
56.5%
45.3%
P2
52.4%
48.5%
P3
45.2%
45.0%
OT
100.0%
33.3%
Final 5 min
48.1%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
46.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 10, 2024 | 2 | 11:52 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 10, 2024 | 1 | 17:29 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 08:55 | Defensive | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 3 | 03:31 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |
| Jan 6, 2024 | 2 | 05:34 | Offensive | Nathan MacKinnon |