Kevin Stenlund vs Nathan MacKinnon
2024-25 · Faceoff Head-to-Head
Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs MacKinnon 49.9% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 60.5%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 96.3%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 88.0%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 77.0%
77.0%
23.0%
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
1
(6 meetings)
5
1
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Last 6: Stenlund 5-1 MacKinnon
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
0
Stenlund
MacKinnon
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
MacKinnon
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: MacKinnon
0
1
Stenlund
MacKinnon
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
49.2% (1,266)
+9.4%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
54.9% (193)
+7.6%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
49.1% (55)
+11.4%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +11.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
MacKinnon shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (209).
Stenlund shoots right. MacKinnon is 47.6% vs right-shot opponents (414).
Home / Away
Stenlund
MacKinnon
Home
58.6% (548)
50.9% (740)
Away
59.7% (506)
49.0% (774)
By Period
Stenlund
MacKinnon
P1
60.2%
50.9%
P2
59.1%
51.8%
P3
58.3%
47.1%
OT
58.6%
58.8%
Final 5 min
58.8%
51.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
MacKinnon
48.0%▼
54.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 17:43 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 17:28 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 10:09 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 3 | 05:51 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 27, 2024 | 2 | 01:02 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 12, 2024 | 2 | 09:52 | Neutral | Nathan MacKinnon |