Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +3.3% FO% edge overall. Stenlund wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Dowd shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Dowd 48.3% (+3.3%)
H2H factor
Not applied (3 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 71.4%
Defensive zone
Dowd 75.8%
Neutral zone
Dowd 56.0%
Result
Nic Dowd favored at 69.2%
30.8%
69.2%
Stenlund
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
2
(3 meetings)
1
2
Stenlund
Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
2
Stenlund
Dowd
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
49.2% (778)
+5.2%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
58.3% (12)
-15.4%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
44.0% (234)
+0.1%
On power play, Dowd has a +15.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Stenlund is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Stenlund shoots right. Dowd is 48.5% vs right-shot opponents (326).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Dowd
Home
50.7% (402)
46.3% (492)
Away
52.0% (433)
49.8% (532)
By Period
Stenlund
Dowd
P1
56.5%
49.1%
P2
52.4%
48.2%
P3
45.2%
46.9%
OT
100.0%
71.4%
Final 5 min
48.1%
45.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
48.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 8, 2024 | 3 | 02:30 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 07:36 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 8, 2024 | 2 | 04:29 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |