Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on offensive-zone draws (100% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs Dowd 49.9% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 95.7%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 66.9%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 77.3%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 86.2%
86.2%
13.8%
Stenlund
Dowd
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
1
(5 meetings)
4
1
Stenlund
Dowd
Last 5: Stenlund 4-1 Dowd
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
0
Stenlund
Dowd
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Dowd
0
1
Stenlund
Dowd
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Dowd
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Dowd
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
52.2% (835)
+6.4%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
60.0% (10)
+2.5%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
44.0% (350)
+16.5%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +16.5% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Dowd shoots right. Stenlund is 48.3% vs right-shot opponents (209).
Stenlund shoots right. Dowd is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (362).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Dowd
Home
58.6% (548)
51.5% (619)
Away
59.7% (506)
48.1% (576)
By Period
Stenlund
Dowd
P1
60.2%
51.7%
P2
59.1%
51.6%
P3
58.3%
47.0%
OT
58.6%
22.2%
Final 5 min
58.8%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Dowd
50.0%▲
48.0%
49.9%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 9, 2025 | 3 | 07:36 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 18:00 | Defensive | Nic Dowd |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 17:48 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 2 | 01:16 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 9, 2025 | 1 | 01:42 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |