Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 53.9% vs Roy 52.0% (+2.0%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 56.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 76.3%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 55.8%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 61.0%
61.0%
39.0%
Stenlund
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Stenlund
Roy
Last 8: Stenlund 6-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
2
Stenlund
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.0% (746)
52.3% (589)
+3.7%
Power Play
51.0% (49)
50.0% (40)
+1.0%
Penalty Kill
50.9% (346)
53.3% (92)
-2.4%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +3.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Stenlund is 49.1% vs right-shot opponents (346).
Stenlund shoots right. Roy is 60.9% vs right-shot opponents (225).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Roy
Home
55.8% (565)
55.1% (350)
Away
52.8% (576)
49.6% (371)
By Period
Stenlund
Roy
P1
53.2%
53.4%
P2
53.9%
51.1%
P3
55.9%
52.3%
Final 5 min
57.0%
48.2%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▬
52.0%
54.3%
Roy
56.0%▲
47.5%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 02:58 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:25 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |