Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +2.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (60% H2H, 5 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Roy 51.9% (+2.5%)
H2H factor
Not applied (8 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 64.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 79.2%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 67.1%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 69.8%
69.8%
30.2%
Stenlund
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
2
(8 meetings)
6
2
Stenlund
Roy
Last 8: Stenlund 6-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Roy
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
2
Stenlund
Roy
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
51.9% (547)
+4.2%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
54.1% (37)
-0.9%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
53.3% (92)
-1.2%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +4.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Stenlund shoots right. Roy is 60.4% vs right-shot opponents (212).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Roy
Home
57.0% (458)
54.0% (328)
Away
52.6% (511)
50.6% (348)
By Period
Stenlund
Roy
P1
55.1%
53.5%
P2
53.3%
51.6%
P3
56.4%
51.6%
Final 5 min
57.6%
48.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 15:46 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 3 | 13:29 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 18:43 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 08:14 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 05:26 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 13, 2026 | 2 | 02:58 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 3 | 05:25 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Nov 5, 2025 | 2 | 08:56 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |