Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +4.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings). Stenlund wins 45.5% vs right-shot opponents — Roy shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 51.2% vs Roy 47.2% (+4.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 52.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 59.7%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 65.8%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Stenlund
Roy
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Stenlund
Roy
Last 5: Stenlund 3-2 Roy
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Roy
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Roy
0
1
Stenlund
Roy
1 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
1
Stenlund
Roy
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Roy
Edge
Even Strength
54.4% (592)
47.5% (617)
+6.9%
Power Play
42.9% (14)
39.6% (53)
+3.3%
Penalty Kill
44.1% (229)
46.4% (97)
-2.3%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +6.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Roy shoots right. Stenlund is 45.5% vs right-shot opponents (191).
Stenlund shoots right. Roy is 52.9% vs right-shot opponents (174).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Roy
Home
50.7% (402)
47.2% (398)
Away
52.0% (433)
46.3% (369)
By Period
Stenlund
Roy
P1
56.5%
48.6%
P2
52.4%
48.8%
P3
45.2%
43.9%
OT
100.0%
0.0%
Final 5 min
48.1%
45.1%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
51.4%
Roy
46.0%▼
49.0%
46.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 18:38 | Neutral | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 2 | 07:49 | Defensive | Nicolas Roy |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 19:59 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 4, 2024 | 1 | 07:36 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 23, 2023 | 1 | 11:55 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |