Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +5.0% FO% edge overall. Look for Zacha on offensive-zone draws (87% H2H, 15 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Zacha shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.0% vs Zacha 49.1% (+5.0%)
H2H factor
Zacha leads 15-12 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Zacha 84.0%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 71.2%
Neutral zone
Zacha 58.3%
Result
Pavel Zacha favored at 64.9%
35.1%
64.9%
Stenlund
Zacha
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
15
(27 meetings)
12
15
Stenlund
Zacha
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 Zacha
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Zacha
2
13
Stenlund
Zacha
15 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
7
0
Stenlund
Zacha
7 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
2
Stenlund
Zacha
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Zacha
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,703)
48.9% (5,102)
+6.4%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
55.6% (804)
-3.0%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (919)
42.2% (555)
+8.4%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +8.4% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Zacha shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Stenlund shoots right. Zacha is 51.1% vs right-shot opponents (2,539).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Zacha
Home
54.3% (1,848)
49.7% (3,353)
Away
53.9% (1,890)
48.5% (3,108)
By Period
Stenlund
Zacha
P1
56.4%
49.9%
P2
53.3%
49.2%
P3
52.8%
48.1%
OT
52.9%
53.1%
Final 5 min
53.4%
47.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Zacha
46.0%▼
50.5%
49.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 16, 2025 | 1 | 13:12 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 19:44 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2025 | 2 | 14:01 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 18:13 | Neutral | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 3 | 01:54 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 12:20 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 21, 2024 | 2 | 03:41 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2024 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 3 | 09:36 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Oct 19, 2024 | 1 | 16:57 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:29 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 3 | 10:23 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 14:27 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 2 | 14:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 13:25 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 09:11 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Apr 6, 2024 | 1 | 06:46 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Mar 26, 2024 | 3 | 14:17 | Offensive | Pavel Zacha |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 3 | 10:16 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 22, 2023 | 2 | 09:22 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |