Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +14.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Donato on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Stenlund wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs Donato 45.4% (+14.5%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 7-6 in 13 meetings
Offensive zone
Donato 60.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 85.4%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 75.0%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 61.9%
61.9%
38.1%
Stenlund
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
6
(13 meetings)
7
6
Stenlund
Donato
Last 10: Stenlund 4-6 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
1
5
Stenlund
Donato
6 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
1
Stenlund
Donato
4 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
3
0
Stenlund
Donato
3 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
43.5% (400)
+15.1%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
48.7% (119)
+13.8%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
33.3% (6)
+27.2%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +27.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Stenlund shoots right. Donato is 44.3% vs right-shot opponents (192).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Donato
Home
58.6% (548)
50.2% (279)
Away
59.7% (506)
38.2% (246)
By Period
Stenlund
Donato
P1
60.2%
44.6%
P2
59.1%
46.6%
P3
58.3%
42.0%
OT
58.6%
60.0%
Final 5 min
58.8%
49.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:17 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 08:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 02:19 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |