Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Stenlund on neutral-zone draws (100% H2H, 5 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Donato shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.0% vs Donato 44.9% (+9.6%)
H2H factor
Stenlund leads 12-8 in 20 meetings
Offensive zone
Donato 58.2%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 95.2%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 83.8%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 65.6%
65.6%
34.4%
Stenlund
Donato
Head-to-Head Record
12
-
8
(20 meetings)
12
8
Stenlund
Donato
Last 10: Stenlund 6-4 Donato
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Donato
3
7
Stenlund
Donato
10 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
4
1
Stenlund
Donato
5 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
5
0
Stenlund
Donato
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Donato
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,703)
44.2% (1,179)
+11.1%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
46.3% (246)
+6.3%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (919)
36.4% (11)
+14.2%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +14.2% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Donato shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Stenlund shoots right. Donato is 44.2% vs right-shot opponents (547).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Donato
Home
54.3% (1,848)
47.2% (743)
Away
53.9% (1,890)
41.6% (693)
By Period
Stenlund
Donato
P1
56.4%
43.4%
P2
53.3%
45.1%
P3
52.8%
44.4%
OT
52.9%
70.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
47.5%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Donato
46.0%▼
48.5%
44.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 12, 2026 | 3 | 10:54 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 12, 2026 | 1 | 11:21 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 9, 2026 | OT | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 3 | 16:00 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 17:24 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 2 | 03:27 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 16:17 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Mar 30, 2025 | 1 | 10:18 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 19:23 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 3 | 18:24 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 18:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 2 | 14:28 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Feb 25, 2025 | 1 | 07:12 | Defensive | Ryan Donato |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 3 | 19:38 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 2 | 08:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 8, 2024 | 1 | 02:19 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 3 | 09:27 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 12, 2023 | 2 | 09:52 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |
| Nov 4, 2023 | 2 | 09:05 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 18, 2022 | 3 | 08:45 | Offensive | Ryan Donato |