Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +6.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Johnston on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Johnston 48.5% (+6.4%)
H2H factor
Not applied (6 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Stenlund 50.3%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 90.8%
Neutral zone
Stenlund 67.8%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 66.7%
66.7%
33.3%
Stenlund
Johnston
Head-to-Head Record
4
-
2
(6 meetings)
4
2
Stenlund
Johnston
Last 6: Stenlund 4-2 Johnston
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Johnston
1
2
Stenlund
Johnston
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
2
0
Stenlund
Johnston
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Johnston
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Johnston
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
47.8% (623)
+8.3%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
50.8% (63)
+2.4%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
51.4% (35)
+0.7%
On even strength, Stenlund has a +8.3% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Johnston shoots right. Stenlund is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (320).
Stenlund shoots right. Johnston is 52.4% vs right-shot opponents (185).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Johnston
Home
57.0% (458)
47.6% (351)
Away
52.6% (511)
48.9% (370)
By Period
Stenlund
Johnston
P1
55.1%
49.6%
P2
53.3%
47.3%
P3
56.4%
48.0%
OT
42.1%
46.7%
Final 5 min
57.6%
48.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Johnston
52.0%▲
50.5%
48.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 31, 2026 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Jan 31, 2026 | 1 | 07:06 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 1 | 13:45 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 2 | 03:03 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 17:19 | Offensive | Wyatt Johnston |
| Nov 28, 2025 | 1 | 05:50 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |