Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.5% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on defensive-zone draws (75% H2H, 4 meetings). Stenlund wins 61.8% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 58.3% vs Gourde 49.7% (+9.5%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 9-6 in 15 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 68.2%
Defensive zone
Gourde 51.9%
Neutral zone
Gourde 56.9%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 57.8%
42.2%
57.8%
Stenlund
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
6
-
9
(15 meetings)
6
9
Stenlund
Gourde
Last 10: Stenlund 5-5 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
2
Stenlund
Gourde
3 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
1
3
Stenlund
Gourde
4 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Stenlund
Gourde
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
58.6% (797)
51.2% (469)
+7.4%
Power Play
62.5% (24)
42.9% (21)
+19.6%
Penalty Kill
60.5% (233)
37.5% (48)
+23.0%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +23.0% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Stenlund is 61.8% vs left-shot opponents (845).
Stenlund shoots right. Gourde is 46.1% vs right-shot opponents (180).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Gourde
Home
58.6% (548)
47.8% (301)
Away
59.7% (506)
51.9% (237)
By Period
Stenlund
Gourde
P1
60.2%
47.3%
P2
59.1%
53.4%
P3
58.3%
48.6%
OT
58.6%
33.3%
Final 5 min
58.8%
44.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
59.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
49.6%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:54 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:02 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |