Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +5.9% FO% edge overall. Look for Gourde on offensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 12 meetings). Stenlund wins 56.0% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.0% vs Gourde 48.2% (+5.9%)
H2H factor
Gourde leads 17-10 in 27 meetings
Offensive zone
Gourde 86.0%
Defensive zone
Gourde 57.7%
Neutral zone
Gourde 66.0%
Result
Yanni Gourde favored at 72.8%
27.2%
72.8%
Stenlund
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
10
-
17
(27 meetings)
10
17
Stenlund
Gourde
Last 10: Stenlund 6-4 Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
4
8
Stenlund
Gourde
12 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
2
5
Stenlund
Gourde
7 total
Neutral Zone
Even
4
4
Stenlund
Gourde
8 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
55.3% (2,703)
48.4% (4,954)
+6.9%
Power Play
52.6% (116)
57.4% (376)
-4.8%
Penalty Kill
50.6% (919)
39.9% (554)
+10.7%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +10.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Stenlund is 56.0% vs left-shot opponents (2,807).
Stenlund shoots right. Gourde is 46.7% vs right-shot opponents (1,937).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Gourde
Home
54.3% (1,848)
49.3% (2,915)
Away
53.9% (1,890)
47.2% (2,969)
By Period
Stenlund
Gourde
P1
56.4%
49.9%
P2
53.3%
47.4%
P3
52.8%
47.5%
OT
52.9%
37.0%
Final 5 min
53.4%
48.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.1%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
48.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:58 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 14:54 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 12:20 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 08:59 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 3 | 05:35 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 19:30 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 10:32 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 2 | 07:41 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 16:38 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 04:20 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 27, 2025 | 1 | 01:52 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 17:53 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 05:22 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Mar 22, 2025 | 2 | 02:02 | Neutral | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 14:46 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Dec 30, 2024 | 2 | 04:04 | Neutral | Kevin Stenlund |
| Dec 12, 2023 | 1 | 02:41 | Defensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 12:30 | Offensive | Yanni Gourde |
| Oct 28, 2023 | 1 | 07:31 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |