Scouting Report
Kevin Stenlund holds a +9.2% FO% edge overall. Stenlund wins 57.9% vs left-shot opponents — Gourde shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Stenlund 54.3% vs Gourde 46.0% (+9.2%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Gourde 52.4%
Defensive zone
Stenlund 71.3%
Neutral zone
Gourde 51.5%
Result
Kevin Stenlund favored at 59.5%
59.5%
40.5%
Stenlund
Gourde
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Stenlund
Gourde
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Stenlund
1
0
Stenlund
Gourde
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Gourde
0
1
Stenlund
Gourde
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Stenlund
Gourde
Edge
Even Strength
56.1% (615)
47.2% (654)
+8.9%
Power Play
53.2% (47)
45.0% (20)
+8.2%
Penalty Kill
52.1% (307)
32.2% (87)
+19.9%
On penalty kill, Stenlund has a +19.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Gourde shoots left. Stenlund is 57.9% vs left-shot opponents (649).
Stenlund shoots right. Gourde is 44.0% vs right-shot opponents (259).
Home / Away
Stenlund
Gourde
Home
57.0% (458)
44.1% (322)
Away
52.6% (511)
46.5% (439)
By Period
Stenlund
Gourde
P1
55.1%
42.4%
P2
53.3%
49.8%
P3
56.4%
44.3%
OT
42.1%
50.0%
Final 5 min
57.6%
49.7%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Stenlund
52.0%▼
59.0%
54.7%
Gourde
54.0%▲
46.0%
45.5%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 19:58 | Offensive | Kevin Stenlund |
| Nov 2, 2025 | 2 | 06:58 | Defensive | Yanni Gourde |