Scouting Report
Nick Paul holds a +15.7% FO% edge overall. Look for Paul on neutral-zone draws (89% H2H, 9 meetings). Dach wins 34.9% vs left-shot opponents — Paul shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Dach 37.3% vs Paul 52.2% (-15.7%)
H2H factor
Paul leads 11-1 in 12 meetings
Offensive zone
Dach 83.9%
Defensive zone
Dach 84.3%
Neutral zone
Dach 90.6%
Result
Kirby Dach favored at 89.0%
89.0%
11.0%
Dach
Paul
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
11
(12 meetings)
1
11
Dach
Paul
Last 10: Dach 1-9 Paul
Zone Breakdown
Defensive Zone
Edge: Paul
0
3
Dach
Paul
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Paul
1
8
Dach
Paul
9 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Dach
Paul
Edge
Even Strength
36.5% (1,423)
52.5% (3,796)
-16.0%
Power Play
35.7% (98)
56.5% (480)
-20.8%
Penalty Kill
36.0% (25)
46.7% (574)
-10.7%
On power play, Paul has a +20.8% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Paul shoots left. Dach is 34.9% vs left-shot opponents (1,111).
Dach shoots right. Paul is 48.1% vs right-shot opponents (1,780).
Home / Away
Dach
Paul
Home
37.0% (857)
52.7% (2,412)
Away
35.8% (689)
51.7% (2,439)
By Period
Dach
Paul
P1
35.3%
53.9%
P2
34.5%
51.0%
P3
40.4%
52.0%
OT
0.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.9%
51.4%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Dach
42.0%▬
42.0%
36.5%
Paul
54.0%▬
54.0%
52.2%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 06:44 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Jan 21, 2025 | 2 | 17:13 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 2 | 03:10 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 16:53 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 29, 2024 | 1 | 13:36 | Neutral | Kirby Dach |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 3 | 15:43 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Dec 28, 2022 | 1 | 18:31 | Defensive | Nick Paul |
| Dec 17, 2022 | 1 | 02:57 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 3 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Apr 1, 2022 | 2 | 00:00 | Neutral | Nick Paul |
| Nov 1, 2021 | 3 | 00:27 | Neutral | Nick Paul |