Scouting Report
Nico Sturm holds a +7.6% FO% edge overall. Look for Pederson on defensive-zone draws (67% H2H, 3 meetings).
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Pederson 49.0% vs Sturm 56.1% (-7.6%)
H2H factor
Not applied (9 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Pederson 50.8%
Defensive zone
Sturm 89.2%
Neutral zone
Sturm 66.9%
Result
Nico Sturm favored at 72.4%
27.6%
72.4%
Pederson
Sturm
Head-to-Head Record
5
-
4
(9 meetings)
5
4
Pederson
Sturm
Last 9: Pederson 5-4 Sturm
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Pederson
1
0
Pederson
Sturm
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: Pederson
2
1
Pederson
Sturm
3 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Sturm
2
3
Pederson
Sturm
5 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Pederson
Sturm
Edge
Even Strength
48.9% (323)
57.1% (2,719)
-8.2%
Power Play
47.4% (19)
61.3% (62)
-13.9%
Penalty Kill
44.4% (9)
51.0% (498)
-6.6%
On power play, Sturm has a +13.9% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Sturm shoots left. Pederson is 51.3% vs left-shot opponents (263).
Pederson shoots right. Sturm is 57.9% vs right-shot opponents (1,093).
Home / Away
Pederson
Sturm
Home
53.1% (145)
57.1% (1,614)
Away
45.6% (206)
55.4% (1,665)
By Period
Pederson
Sturm
P1
49.6%
56.5%
P2
45.8%
54.9%
P3
50.9%
57.4%
Final 5 min
45.9%
56.9%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Pederson
46.0%▼
49.0%
48.7%
Sturm
52.0%▼
57.5%
56.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 14, 2023 | 3 | 11:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 15:09 | Defensive | Lane Pederson |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 12:03 | Defensive | Nico Sturm |
| Mar 14, 2023 | 2 | 10:24 | Neutral | Lane Pederson |
| Apr 21, 2021 | 3 | 07:20 | Neutral | Lane Pederson |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 13:27 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 3 | 06:20 | Neutral | Nico Sturm |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 2 | 02:29 | Defensive | Lane Pederson |
| Apr 19, 2021 | 1 | 13:33 | Offensive | Lane Pederson |