Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +3.4% FO% edge overall. Look for Nelson on offensive-zone draws (83% H2H, 6 meetings). Nelson wins 46.7% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 44.4% vs Eller 47.4% (-3.4%)
H2H factor
Nelson leads 7-3 in 10 meetings
Offensive zone
Eller 60.3%
Defensive zone
Eller 53.7%
Neutral zone
Eller 57.3%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 58.4%
41.6%
58.4%
Nelson
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
7
-
3
(10 meetings)
7
3
Nelson
Eller
Last 10: Nelson 7-3 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
5
1
Nelson
Eller
6 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Eller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Eller
2 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
43.0% (688)
48.9% (701)
-5.9%
Power Play
54.8% (42)
62.5% (8)
-7.7%
Penalty Kill
44.3% (61)
39.1% (174)
+5.2%
On power play, Eller has a +7.7% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Nelson is 46.7% vs left-shot opponents (505).
Nelson shoots left. Eller is 46.9% vs left-shot opponents (544).
Home / Away
Nelson
Eller
Home
41.9% (391)
47.5% (421)
Away
45.5% (400)
46.8% (462)
By Period
Nelson
Eller
P1
47.1%
47.8%
P2
43.0%
47.3%
P3
40.9%
46.1%
OT
63.6%
66.7%
Final 5 min
43.6%
45.0%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
43.7%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
47.1%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 05:42 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 05:37 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 3 | 05:24 | Neutral | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 13:24 | Neutral | Lars Eller |
| Dec 27, 2016 | 1 | 02:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 13, 2016 | 3 | 03:21 | Offensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 3 | 16:32 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 3 | 05:06 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 2 | 15:38 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Oct 15, 2016 | 1 | 01:42 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |