Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +7.1% FO% edge overall. Nelson wins 46.1% vs left-shot opponents — Eller shoots left.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Nelson 45.8% vs Eller 52.0% (-7.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (5 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Nelson 70.5%
Defensive zone
Eller 82.8%
Neutral zone
Eller 56.0%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 56.2%
43.8%
56.2%
Nelson
Eller
Head-to-Head Record
3
-
2
(5 meetings)
3
2
Nelson
Eller
Last 5: Nelson 3-2 Eller
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Nelson
2
0
Nelson
Eller
2 total
Defensive Zone
Even
1
1
Nelson
Eller
2 total
Neutral Zone
Edge: Eller
0
1
Nelson
Eller
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Nelson
Eller
Edge
Even Strength
46.1% (735)
52.8% (742)
-6.7%
Power Play
34.5% (29)
67.6% (34)
-33.1%
Penalty Kill
30.4% (23)
46.2% (156)
-15.8%
On power play, Eller has a +33.1% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
Eller shoots left. Nelson is 46.1% vs left-shot opponents (547).
Nelson shoots left. Eller is 52.8% vs left-shot opponents (599).
Home / Away
Nelson
Eller
Home
48.7% (419)
54.5% (448)
Away
41.3% (368)
50.2% (484)
By Period
Nelson
Eller
P1
44.6%
52.8%
P2
47.3%
50.9%
P3
43.0%
53.4%
OT
100.0%
50.0%
Final 5 min
39.4%
55.6%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Nelson
60.0%▲
54.0%
45.2%
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
52.3%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Apr 17, 2024 | 1 | 04:18 | Defensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 2 | 11:58 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 31, 2023 | 1 | 09:13 | Defensive | Lars Eller |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 3 | 03:13 | Offensive | Brock Nelson |
| Dec 27, 2023 | 2 | 10:27 | Neutral | Lars Eller |