Scouting Report
Lars Eller holds a +4.1% FO% edge overall. Eller wins 56.7% vs right-shot opponents — McCarron shoots right.
Prediction Breakdown
Model
XGBoost ML Model
Overall FO% (Bayesian)
Eller 55.7% vs McCarron 52.5% (+4.1%)
H2H factor
Not applied (2 meetings, need 10+)
Offensive zone
Eller 71.0%
Defensive zone
McCarron 71.1%
Neutral zone
McCarron 54.5%
Result
Lars Eller favored at 50.0%
50.0%
50.0%
Eller
McCarron
Head-to-Head Record
1
-
1
(2 meetings)
1
1
Eller
McCarron
Zone Breakdown
Offensive Zone
Edge: Eller
1
0
Eller
McCarron
1 total
Defensive Zone
Edge: McCarron
0
1
Eller
McCarron
1 total
Situation Matchup
Situation
Eller
McCarron
Edge
Even Strength
56.5% (434)
53.1% (672)
+3.4%
Power Play
77.8% (9)
18.2% (11)
+59.6%
Penalty Kill
56.5% (46)
53.7% (205)
+2.8%
On power play, Eller has a +59.6% edge.
Handedness & Splits
Handedness
McCarron shoots right. Eller is 56.7% vs right-shot opponents (187).
Eller shoots left. McCarron is 54.4% vs left-shot opponents (623).
Home / Away
Eller
McCarron
Home
53.1% (211)
52.8% (477)
Away
59.7% (278)
52.8% (411)
By Period
Eller
McCarron
P1
55.4%
56.5%
P2
58.1%
53.2%
P3
57.1%
49.0%
Final 5 min
60.5%
52.3%
Recent Form
Player
Last 50
Last 200
Career
Eller
50.0%▼
54.0%
56.9%
McCarron
48.0%▬
48.5%
52.8%
Recent Faceoffs
| Date | Period | Time | Zone | Winner |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 22, 2026 | 1 | 12:56 | Defensive | Michael McCarron |
| Oct 13, 2025 | 2 | 10:53 | Offensive | Lars Eller |